Bond Funds: The Main Force Behind Dividends

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In recent years, amid the challenging landscape of investment, public mutual funds have proactively sought to enhance the experience of their investors by actively distributing dividendsThis strategic choice not only serves as a reward for investor loyalty but also plays a crucial role in rebuilding confidence in the marketAccording to data from public mutual fund platforms, as of December 31, 2024, mutual funds collectively distributed dividends totaling approximately 227.39 billion RMB, marking a modest increase of 0.65% compared to the previous year.

Notably, bond funds have emerged as the frontrunners in distributing dividendsThe figures reveal that bond funds accounted for a substantial share of the overall dividend payout, amounting to 181.38 billion RMB, which represents nearly 79.77% of the total dividends distributedThis trend underscores the growing preference among investors for the stability and security that bond funds typically provide, especially during periods of economic uncertainty.

The performance of equity markets since the end of September has been particularly beneficial for stock mutual funds, which saw their dividend distributions double in 2024. By year's end, these funds achieved a cumulative dividend total of 28.32 billion RMB, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year growth of 108.85%, constituting around 12.46% of the total dividends paid

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This resurgence suggests that investors are beginning to regain faith in the potential for capital appreciation through equity investments, further enhancing the appeal of stock funds in the current investment landscape.

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and mixed funds have seen dividend distributions that are roughly on par with one another, with REITs distributing around 8.40 billion RMB while mixed funds disbursed approximately 8.59 billion RMBThis competitive dividend environment signifies a robust interest in diverse investment avenues, helping to cater to varied investor preferences and encouraging broader participation in the market.

Furthermore, the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) funds have also reported significant improvements in their dividend payouts due to robust performances overseas, clocking in at 548 million RMB, a marked increase compared to the previous year

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This illustrates the diversification strategy wherein investors are looking beyond domestic markets to explore growth opportunities in international landscapes.

Dividends serve as a critical cash income stream for investors, offering them a tangible form of return on their investments apart from capital appreciationThis is especially vital for those reliant on dividend income for financial sustenance, underscoring the importance of steady dividend policies: they enhance the real benefits perceived by investors and contribute to a more satisfying investment experience.

The capacity for mutual funds to consistently provide dividends is fundamentally anchored in their profitability and overall market performanceLooking ahead to the A-share market in 2025, analysts from the Guolian Fund have noted a significant rebound in policy momentum since September 24, 2024, which has bolstered market sentiment and triggered a valuation reversal

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If we assess this current phase of valuation adjustments, we see that they are approaching levels reminiscent of 2014. The potential for further systematic expansion in valuations by 2025 will largely hinge on market expectations surrounding the pace of economic recovery.

Ping An Fund notes the distinctive trends observed in the market since September 24, 2024, particularly highlighting that while prevailing policies were driving market optimism, the underlying economic fundamentals lagged behind, failing to synchronize with the rapid shifts in market conditionsUnder such circumstances, the market movements have primarily been propelled by investors’ risk appetite and valuation dynamics.
However, as the calendar turns to 2025, the landscape is poised for change

The anticipations fostered through previous policies are expected to gradually materialize into realitiesWith continuous improvements in economic indicators and expectations of an upward profitability cycle, there is reason to anticipate that market drivers may shift from a valuation-based approach to one more reliant on fundamental earnings metrics.

Ping An Fund further asserts that once a new surge in the profit cycle unfolds, institutions that have thoroughly engaged in fundamental analysis are likely to gain the upper hand in the market, leveraging their deep insights and strong analytical capabilitiesFrom an investment standpoint, Ping An Fund has a clear focus on sectors that benefit from economic cycles, particularly cyclical core assetsThese assets are often closely linked to macroeconomic conditions and display formidable profit capabilities and potential for value appreciation during phases of economic growth

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Furthermore, the consumer sector remains highly attractive; as a driver of economic development, its stability and sustainability are widely acknowledgedCompanies that exhibit core competitiveness in the consumer domain, with expansive customer bases and strong brand recognition, represent noteworthy investment prospects.

In addition, Ping An Fund maintains a positive perspective on domestic technological innovation and sectors characterized by self-control capabilitiesIn an increasingly competitive global environment, China is substantially investing in technological innovations to achieve self-reliance in critical technologiesFirms that achieve breakthroughs in this domain, particularly in areas like AI technologies or domestic computing power, are expected to exhibit strong growth potential, positioning themselves as pivotal players in advancing China’s technological development and promoting high-quality economic growth

The burgeoning field of new energy is also indispensable, reflecting the global shift towards sustainable energy solutionsChina possesses significant strengths across various stages of R&D, production, and the application of new energy technologies, ensuring that related enterprises will strike a vital chord in future market developments.

Guokai Securities has proposed its insights, recognizing the stock market's potential to perform a "positive feedback" functionIn the current context of ongoing policy initiatives that aim to bolster effectiveness and quality, both "expectation management" and "market capitalization management" will increasingly play significant roles in overall market operationsAs we look forward to 2025, there remains substantial room for improving expectation management, suggesting that China's capital markets will likely sustain a certain level of vibrancy.

For listed companies, adopting a strategic approach to market capitalization management will greatly contribute to stabilizing market expectations, and fostering a more coherent investment climate

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